The Tracker is not an exhaustive list as there is simply too much that qualifies. Unfortunately, that means we only track what we consider the most outrageous action, talking point, or social media post for a given day. (Otherwise, day 1 may take up a whole book!)

If you have a suggestion for the latest outrage, or if you think we missed one in the past, please let us know. We are still catching up on past events, so feel free to send us your suggestions. Just send a link to an article with information on the event, the date it occurred, and whether you would like us to include your username next to that day’s post.

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The List

(Day 107): May 6, 2025: Trump doubles down on his prior posted AI photo of a “Pope Trump,” following the death of Pope Francis, claiming that he “would be [his] number one choice.”

(Day 106): May 5, 2025: Secretary of Education Linda McMahon posts a letter to social media doubling down on the administration’s targeting of Harvard, officially suspending all grants.

(Day 105): May 4, 2025: Trump announces his intention to reopen Alcatraz prison, apparently on a whim despite it having been closed for decades due to high operating costs.

(Day 104): May 3, 2025: The Trump administration’s withdrawal from worldwide climate financing has opened the door for Chinese investment and global influence, even amongst U.S. allies.

(Day 103): May 2, 2025: Trump proposes his spending bill which will slash $163 billion with cuts targeting programs meant to help those in poverty, the environment, education, medical research and public health policy, and even law enforcement.

(Day 102): May 1, 2025: Trump suspends $1 billion for student mental health funding that was appropriated with bipartisan support following the Uvalde school shooting.

(Day 101): April 30, 2025: During an interview with ABC News, Trump refuses or is unable to acknowledge that the “MS-13” tattoos on Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s hands were clearly photoshopped.

(Day 100): April 29, 2025: On Trump’s 100^th day, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth eliminates the “woke” Women, Peace, and Security program which had been sponsored by fellow cabinet secretaries Kristi Noem and Marco Rubio and signed by Trump during his first term.

(Day 99): April 28, 2025: Hundreds of lawyers and staffers resign en masse from the Justice Department’s civil rights division as Trump reorients it to target universities and blue cities.

(Day 98): April 27, 2025: It is revealed that several American citizens, children as young as two, are being deported even with family members remaining in the country.

(Day 97): April 26, 2025: As the administration nears 100 days, polling shows poor results for Trump who has historic lows for the beginning of an administration having the same 42% approval he had in October 2020 before losing the election, with more of those supporters’ positions being softer than they were then.

(Day 96): April 25, 2025: A draft of a proposed Trump spending bill reveals massive cuts to the social safety net including billions taken from child care, education, medical research, and elder care.

(Day 95): April 24, 2025: As Musk prepares to exit, he boasts that DOGE has saved about $150 billion, far shy of the $1 trillion promise let alone the initial $2 trillion. On top of falling way short of his goal, the chaos from DOGE is projected to cost taxpayers an additional $135 billion basically wiping out any of the supposed gains.

(Day 94): April 23, 2025: Trump signs an executive order to undermine civil rights protections under Title VI to prevent discriminatory results in areas such as housing and education.

(Day 93): April 22, 2025: Reporting reveals a Defense Department in disarray as Secretary Hegseth and his team’s inexperience and radical agenda sow distrust within the Pentagon on top of the chaos already created by Musk’s DOGE targeting to cut nearly a third of the civilian workforce.

(Day 92): April 21, 2025: Trump goes on another anti-immigration rant, this time culminating in sharing a clearly doctored photo of Kilmar Abrego Garcia with a fake tattoo of “MS-13” written across his knuckles.

(Day 91): April 20, 2025: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is found to have again used the unsecured app, Signal, to communicate sensitive information about military attacks on Yemen, this time to a private group that included family members and his lawyer.

(Day 90): April 19, 2025: Several former members of Trump’s first administration and major GOP officials sign an open letter criticizing Trump’s targeted punishment of former staffers who criticized him.

(Day 89): April 18, 2025: Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio openly discuss withdrawing support from Ukraine, weakening U.S. allies and bolstering Putin.

(Day 88): April 17, 2025: Legal issues are everywhere as a federal appeals court sternly rebukes the administration’s violation of a court order in the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Supreme Court agrees to hear a case on Trump’s attempt to unilaterally repeal the 14^th Amendment through executive order, and multiple states and interest groups sue the administration for using the threat of federal funding cuts for low-income students to bully public schools.

(Day 87): April 16, 2025: Department of the Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, halts an already approved wind project mid-construction.

(Day 86): April 15, 2025: Federal judge issues a temporary injunction against the Trump administration’s freezing of funding for climate infrastructure.

(Day 85): April 14, 2025: Once again attacking free speech and proving that there is no “right way” through the immigration process under Trump, ICE arrests 10-year permanent resident and Columbia student, Mohsen Mahdawi, on the way to his naturalization interview for citizenship. His arrest is seen as retribution for his protesting the situation in Gaza (a First Amendment protected activity guaranteed to permanent residents).

(Day 84): April 13, 2025: Trump again targets the First Amendment, going on a social media rant about CBS’s 60 Minutes for daring to cover his statements and actions on Ukraine and Greenland and bragging about privately suing the news company while occupying the Oval Office.

(Day 83): April 12, 2025: Trump’s chaotic rule is having effects. Americans are feeling the crunch of Trump’s tariff policies as they scramble to buy foreign goods and essentials (including groceries and baby products) before inflationary pressures hit prices. Additionally, Harvard professors sue the administration for First Amendment violations stemming from the threat of $9 billion in funding cuts.

(Day 82): April 11, 2025: The trade war escalates as Trump’s April 9^th increase of tariffs on China to 145% leads to their response with a 125% tariff on U.S. goods.

(Day 81): April 10, 2025: The Supreme Court rules the Trump administration must take steps to secure the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia from an El Salvadorian prison.

(Day 80): April 9, 2025: Despite falsely claiming the economy was great, that there was no inflation, and the tariffs were working, Trump chickens out and pauses tariffs on 60 countries for 90 days.

(Day 79): April 8, 2025: Trump continues his attack on higher education by freezing $1 billion from Cornell and $790 million from Northwestern meant to fund grants for research in agriculture, defense, education, and public health.

(Day 78): April 7, 2025: Trump administration issues a request for proposals to spend $45 billion for new immigration detention centers and related services.

(Day 77): April 6, 2025: While spending another weekend golfing, the stock market losses from Trump’s tariffs hits $6 trillion.

(Day 76): April 5, 2025: 16 states sue the Trump administration for cuts to grants from the National Institutes of Health that has already seriously harmed research on health issues such as cancer and diabetes.

(Day 75): April 4, 2025: In response to Trump’s war on DEI, the U.S. Naval Academy removes 381 books from the Nimitz Library.

(Day 74): April 3, 2025: In another attack on American higher education, Trump sends a list of demands to Harvard, threatening $9 billion the university receives in federal funding. Included in that is money for medical research and grant commitments to Boston-area hospitals.

(Day 73): April 2, 2025: In what has been ludicrously dubbed, “Liberation Day Tariffs,” Trump issues worldwide, supposedly reciprocal, tariffs that includes uninhabited remote islands, raising questions as to the administration’s methodology.

(Day 72): April 1, 2025: Trump administration begins withholding tens of millions in Title X funds meant to go to health centers that provide family planning aid and reproductive health care – including cancer screenings and birth control access.

(Day 71): March 31, 2025: Democrats and rights groups file lawsuits over Trump’s executive order that attempts to usurp state powers and disenfranchise voters with changes to the election system.

(Day 70): March 30, 2025: Two career prosecutors are fired in one-sentence emails that offer no explanation but state that the action was directed by Trump. It is revealed that over 50 prosecutors have been ousted in prior weeks, a move that violates norms and is an attempt to expand executive power.

(Day 69): March 29, 2025: Reporting shows that members of the unsecured Signal group chat were overseas and/or on personal devices while sharing sensitive information.

(Day 68): March 28, 2025: In another attack on free speech, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces that he has revoked over 300 visas (including from permanent residents) for protesting.

(Day 67): March 27, 2025: Trump violates norms again as he interferes in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election with Musk’s PAC paying voters $100 for signing a petition to oppose “activist judges” and targets another private law firm, WilmerHale, for having ties to Robert Mueller.

(Day 66): March 26, 2025: Trump imposes a 25% tariff on cars and car parts impacting foreign and domestic manufacturers and leading to an overall stock market decline of 1-2% and slumping domestic automakers by 3-5%.

(Day 65): March 25, 2025: Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, and CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, obfuscate and change responses in a hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee on what, if any, classified information was leaked on Hegseth’s Signal chat.

(Day 64): March 24, 2025: Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, fails to defend state secrets as he includes an editor from The Atlantic in a Signal group chat discussing plans and logistics for strikes on Yemen.

(Day 63): March 23, 2025: While working for the Trump administration, Musk and SpaceX are given permission to ignore the obvious conflicts of interest and promote themselves for government contracts and regulatory permits.

(Day 62): March 22, 2025: Trump continues his targeting of law firms that investigated or challenged him with a memorandum that directs the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security to sanction them. This continues his retributive attacks of revoking his political rival’s security credentials.

(Day 61): March 21, 2025: Trump attacks government oversight as he dismantles three agencies in the Department of Homeland Security meant to ensure due process in the deportation procedure.

(Day 60): March 20, 2025: Trump orders the shutdown of the Department of Education.

(Day 59): March 19, 2025: In another stunning violation of privacy regarding Social Security, the Trump administration’s “sloppy” handling of the Kennedy file release exposes 400 social security numbers.

(Day 58): March 18, 2025: Federal judge rules that Trump and Musk’s attacks on USAID likely violated the constitution in the first judicial action to constrain DOGE.

(Day 57): March 17, 2025: Over the weekend, the Trump administration violated a court order to stop deportation flights and return those already on their way to El Salvador – this includes a third flight clearly after the order. On Monday, Trump’s “border czar,” Thomas Homan says, “[he does not] care what the judges think.”

(Day 56): March 16, 2025: Trump posts that he is voiding pardons offered under the Biden administration, claiming, falsely and without evidence, that they were done using an autopen.

(Day 55): March 15, 2025: Trump invokes the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to target Venezuelan migrants under the pretense that the U.S. is at war with the South American country.

(Day 54): March 14, 2025: Trump goes on a crazy social media rant posting numerous messages, especially trying to blame Biden for a degrading situation in Ukraine, lying about the autopen, and bragging about targeting the security clearances of his political rivals – the topic of a speech he gave at the Department of Justice.

(Day 53): March 13, 2025: As Trump threatens to increase tariffs on allies to as high as 200%, 98 protestors are arrested for challenging the targeted arrest of Mahmoud Khalil.

(Day 52): March 12, 2025: Trump initiates a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum triggering retaliation across the world impact billions in U.S. exports and crashing projections for U.S. economic growth

(Day 51): March 11, 2025: Trump cuts the Department of Education in half, affecting student loans, Pell Grants, and funding for special needs students.

(Day 50): March 10, 2025: Trump’s tariff policy experiences blowback as China retaliates with tariffs up to 15% targeting U.S. agriculture.

(Day 49): March 9, 2025: The Trump administration is sued by Native American tribes and students for cuts to around 25% of staffing at the two federally run universities for indigenous populations.

(Day 48): March 8, 2025: As Iran rebuffs Trump’s request for negotiations, it is revealed that the Trump administration had cut aid that funded international nuclear inspectors and the labs at the Department of Energy that support the I.A.E.A.

(Day 47): March 7, 2025: Despite just over a week ago proclaiming that the cabinet all loved Elon, Trump is having to deal with numerous major fights between Musk and the heads of agencies and departments he is undermining.

(Day 46): March 6, 2025: Following poor decision-making, major policy decisions are being weakened or reversed: first, a reprieve on tariffs for Canada and Mexico, and second, many of essential government employees hastily fired for “efficiency” are now having to be rehired.

(Day 45): March 5, 2025: Trump’s Department of Veterans Affairs announces a cut of 80,000 employees, 15% of the Department.

(Day 44): March 4, 2025: Trump gives his first State of the Union Address following a stock market tumble resulting from his tariff policies. Trump uses the speech to berate Biden, lied about DOGE discovering fraud, and “claimed a divine mandate…[saying], ‘I was saved by God to make America great again.’”

(Day 43): March 3, 2025: While China, Mexico, and Canada impose their own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, Trump stops aid to Ukraine, undermining the defense against Russian expansionism.

(Day 42): March 2, 2025: Secretary of State Marco Rubio declares an emergency to bypass congressional approval of $4 billion in military aid to Israel.

(Day 41): March 1, 2025: Pentagon announces it is sending an additional 3,000 troops to the U.S.-Mexico border leading to a total of approximately 9,000.

(Day 40): February 28, 2025: Trump attacks Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at a White House press meeting, undermining the peace deal and destroying U.S. credibility with its allies as the nation leading the free world.

(Day 39): February 27, 2025: Administration officials are at a loss on how to comply with Musk’s demand for everyone to describe their workweek without revealing state secrets. Meanwhile, Trump posts, “ALL CABINET MEMBERS ARE EXTREMELY HAPPY WITH ELON.”

(Day 38): February 26, 2025: Trump has his first Cabinet Meeting with Elon Musk, for some reason, in attendance. Musk’s DOGE would end the day instructing the Social Security Administration that it would need to cut its staff by half and the Labor Department would need to decrease by as much as 90%, putting critical services and labor protections in jeopardy.

(Day 37): February 25, 2025: Trump’s Secretary of Veterans Affairs endorses DOGE’s cuts of nearly $2 billion in contracts, including 875 contracts that cover medical services and death benefits.

(Day 36): February 24, 2025: Trump nominated judge denies an appeal from the Associated Press to have their access to White House events restored following the Trump administration’s retribution for their unwillingness to use the “Gulf of America” moniker.

(Day 35): February 23, 2025: Trump announces the appointment of Dan Bongino as FBI Deputy Director. Bongino is a radio host and podcaster who was banned from YouTube and Google’s ad service for COVID misinformation and who peddles the stolen election fantasy.

(Day 34): February 22, 2025: Trump attends CPAC to praise far-right leaders from around the world, including: Nigel Farage (UK), Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil), and Santiago Abascal (Spain).

(Day 33): February 21, 2025: Amidst a flurry of claims about a “woke” military too focused on diversity, Trump and Hegseth “purge” the Pentagon and fire General Charles Q. Brown Jr. as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, despite Trump having appointed Gen. Brown as the Chief of Staff of the Air Force in his first term. (Hegseth had previously questioned whether Gen. Brown’s appointment was due to his race.)

(Day 32): February 20, 2025: As Musk uses DOGE to undermine Tesla’s regulators, Trump again alludes to an unconstitutional third term, calls himself a king, and quotes Napoleon on being above the law.

(Day 31): February 19, 2025: Trump posts Russian talking points on social media calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, “a Dictator without Elections,” undermining U.S. credibility and, once again, targeting an American ally.

(Day 30): February 18, 2025: Trump signs Executive Order 14215, taking control over congressionally authorized independent agencies in a power grab that threatens the separation of powers.

(Day 29): February 17, 2025: Trump celebrates President’s Day weekend firing hundreds, if not thousands, of new (probationary) and temporary government employees while at the same time reporting reveals the serious conflicts of interest in the White House, including Trump’s use of his position to facilitate a merger in professional golf in which his family has financial interests.

(Day 28): February 16, 2025: The first meeting of the Trump administration with European leaders reveals a fractured alliance and undermines U.S. leadership as allies are forced to look elsewhere for security cooperation, prepare for impending tariffs, and Trump potentially abandoning Ukraine.

(Day 27): February 15, 2025: It is revealed that Trump’s freeze on U.S. foreign assistance also impacted anti-terror operations in Africa and the Middle East endangering the U.S. and its allies.

(Day 26): February 14, 2025: Trump administration pushes federal prosecutors to dismiss the case against New York City Mayor, Eric Adams, a decision the judge suspected was a bargain for favorable enforcement of Trump’s immigration policies.

(Day 25): February 13, 2025: Trump’s nominee and brain food for worms, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is confirmed as Secretary of Health and Human Services striking a critical blow for American and global public health infrastructure and scientific advancement.

(Day 24): February 12, 2025: Trump fires four FEMA administrators and revokes $80 million in congressionally approved funds to New York meant to enact a program he created in his first term.

(Day 23): February 11, 2025: Trump and Musk have a bizarre press conference in the Oval Office where Musk reveals he has access to Social Security records, no knowledge or understanding of how the systems operate, and claims to have discovered fraud while providing no evidence of such. All while claiming transparency while offering none except posts on the DOGE Twitter account.

(Day 22): February 10, 2025: Trump’s Executive Order 14172 is reflected in the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico in Google Maps.

(Day 21): February 9, 2025: It is revealed that the Trump administration is administering loyalty tests for intelligence and law enforcement officials. Questions include whether the 2020 election was stolen and if January 6^th (Trump’s insurrection) was an inside job.

(Day 20): February 8, 2025: Trump’s Department of Education becomes the fourth agency in a week to bar entry to Democratic lawmakers without explanation and using armed federal officers to impede efforts for government transparency under DOGE.

(Day 19): February 7, 2025: Trump cuts funding for South Africa and reveals that he does not have a problem with all refugees and asylum seekers as long as they are white South Africans.

(Day 18): February 6, 2025: Trump imposes sanctions on the International Criminal Court in retribution for the investigation into Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

(Day 17): February 5, 2025: Trump signs Executive Order 14201 which will have foreign athletes applying for visas, including for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, investigated for fraud if they apply under a preferred gender that does not align with their sex assigned at birth.

(Day 16): February 4, 2025: Trump proposes displacing Palestinians and seizing Gaza for the U.S. following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

(Day 15): February 3, 2025: Trump’s State Department fires 60 contractors who worked on laying the groundwork for democratic institutions and human rights in authoritarian regimes.

(Day 14): February 2, 2025: Trump and Musk go on a rampage with DOGE accessing secured private information of U.S. citizens, targeting USAID, and pushing out senior officials including the top career official at Treasury.

(Day 13): February 1, 2025: Trump signs a sweeping 25% increase in tariffs on Canada and Mexico (undermining the USMCA Agreement he negotiated in 2019-2020) and a 10% increase to tariffs on China.

(Day 12): January 31, 2025: In an attack on labor, Trump invalidates negotiated government contracts with federal workers to undermine unions and collective bargaining powers.

(Day 11): January 30, 2025: Trump blames the collision of an army helicopter and an American Airlines flight at Reagan National Airport on diversity.

(Day 10): January 29, 2025: Trump launches a war against public schools and universities passing three executive orders controlling education on race and gender, directing tax dollars to private schools, and deporting pro-Palestine protestors while also having his Department of Education target a Denver school for opening a gender-neutral restroom.

(Day 9): January 28, 2025: Trump’s Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, strips former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Trump critic, General Mark A Milley, of his security detail, security clearance, and launches a general inquiry.

(Day 8): January 27, 2025: Trump’s Office of Management and Budget paused all grants, loans, and financial assistance programs citing Marxism, transgenderism, and the green new deal, while also shutting off access to funds for Head Start and Medicaid. UPDATE: While numerous stays are issued by federal courts and the initial memo was retracted, the Trump administration is using loopholes to withhold grant money.

(Day 7): January 26, 2025: As deportation raids begin in Chicago, Trump threatens Colombia with 25% (increasing to 50%) tariffs, travel bans and visa revocation for government officials, increased customs scrutiny for Colombian nationals, and sanctions for turning back repatriation flights.

(Day 6): January 25, 2025: Trump’s nominee and renowned dog shooter, Kristi Noem, is confirmed as the Secretary of Homeland Security.

(Day 5): January 24, 2025: Trump’s nominee and Fox News host, Pete Hegseth, is confirmed as the Secretary of Defense (now Department of War) on a 50-50 vote (VP Vance casting the tiebreaker). Hegseth faced allegations of sexual assault, inappropriate workplace behavior, alcohol abuse, and financial mismanagement.

(Day 4): January 23, 2025: Trump announces his intention to appeal a federal judge’s temporary restraining order suspending his unconstitutional attempt to unilaterally overturn the 14^th Amendment.

(Day 3): January 22, 2025: Trump threatened to withhold aid from California amidst raging wildfires that had already killed 27.

(Day 2): January 21, 2025: Trump signs Executive Order 14173 rescinding EO 11246 signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson which prohibited employment discrimination by government contractors.

(Day 1): January 20, 2025: Trump signs a proclamation offering a blanket pardon to all conspirators and participants in the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the capital.

Since Trump began his second war in Iran, rising gas prices have been used as a major metric to assess the administration’s judgement and management of the conflict. The near doubling of oil prices from the start of 2026 garnered the administration stiff criticism and left Trump and his supporters scrambling to rationalize the spike in costs. While prices have eased since the cessation of open hostilities, they remain high due to lost production and the lack of any lasting resolution to the conflict. As tensions mount again, so to do the risks of another spike.

The typical response to rising fuel prices is the often-accurate refrain that presidents do not control global energy markets. Of course, this argument does not apply in the present case as it is Trump’s poor decision-making in Iran that has created the current crisis. Consequently, many of the administration’s defenders lean back on their conventional formula, asking, “What about Biden?”1

It is true that in 2022, gas prices spiked, hitting comparable highs to what we saw at the height of Trump’s war on Iran. However, the circumstances surrounding the 2022 spike reveal the relevance and situational applicability of the first claim as, in fact, it may even be the case that the 2022 spike is more attributable to the first Trump presidency that to Biden’s.

Below you will find two graphs which show the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and European Brent daily spot prices, the two main indexes used to track oil prices, going back to 2019.2 As these charts indicate, there have been two major spikes in crude prices since the COVID pandemic. Given the similar peaks, the data would seemingly validate the comparison to the Biden administration.

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However, what the numbers do not reveal are the causes and context that led to and framed the two price shocks. Nor do they explain why the supposed, though unestablished, mishandling of the global energy markets by one administration excuses the entirely foreseeable crisis created without any preparation by the current government.

The potential for Iran to use the Strait of Hormuz to cut off global petroleum supplies was not a surprise. As far back as the 2002 Millenium Challenge war games, the U.S. military was aware of the potential for a successful closure of the Persian Gulf using asymmetric warfare.3 If Trump, his War Secretary Pete Hegseth, and the rest of the administration did not know, then they simply were not listening. That there was seemingly no preparation in anticipation, reveals the utter incompetency of the administration.

The loss of nearly one billion barrels of oil to date is a global energy catastrophe, and one of Trump’s own making.4 However, oil prices, like any commodity with a futures exchange, are not solely determined by material supply and demand metrics. Perception influences prices and a multitude of factors are working against calming market forces: the destabilization of the region, the need for an influx of capital to repair the widespread devastation incentivizing oil producing nations to keep prices high, the lack of resolution to underlying tensions, and the absence of any workable strategy by the U.S. to prevent a future closure of the Strait.

Furthermore, this war seems to have revealed to the Iranians that perception is their greatest weapon, as actually closing the Strait of Hormuz has turned out to be less important than the threat or risk of doing so. If Iran can make the risk sufficiently high that tanker owners are unwilling to risk their ships traversing Hormuz or insurance prices are too hefty to provide a sufficient profit, then the Straits are functionally closed for business. After all, no number of demining operations or military escorts can guarantee safe passage from land-based missiles or drone attacks. So, Trump is not only solely responsible for the current oil shock, but he has also confirmed for the Iranians just how strong their strategic position is as a deterrent.

But what about the 2022 spike? Does it at least show Biden was an equally ineffective manager of global energy supplies?

No. Just because Trump caused this current crisis, it does not follow that presidents actually control global energy prices. Policies can certainly impact prices, but this connection must be demonstrated.

For the 2022 spike, most of the causes are fairly evident. First, as the earlier graphs revealed, prices had been rising significantly since an all-time low in 2020 as the world came out of the COVID-era lockdowns. A massive spike in demand paired with restrained production meant oil markets experienced a significant price shock.5

In such a situation, which is largely influenced by external players such as OPEC or private firms, there are limited tools available for any presidential administration. One notable tool is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), created in response to the oil crisis of the early 1970s, which Biden tapped into releasing a historic 180 million barrels starting in March of 2022.6

However, the 2022 supply shortage was not just a consequence of “natural” market forces. Major global events had a significant impact on oil supply, most notably, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February of that year.

Russia’s attack triggered an immediate response from the U.S. and EU. In addition to condemning the aggression the U.S. and EU engaged in a joint effort to exert pressure to end the conflict in Eastern Europe short of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO. This included expanding sanctions on Russia (some of which the Trump administration had previously initiated against subsidiaries of major Russian energy conglomerates).7

The added sanctions in 2022 essentially severed Russian energy exports from Western markets who were their main consumers and for which the transportation infrastructure already existed. However, Russia simply turned eastward and found new consumers in China and India. To adjust for the increased transportation costs, they had to decrease their prices to remain competitive cutting into their revenues.8

Thus, while sanctions were necessary for anyone not willing to simply cede Ukraine to Russian expansionism, the impact of Biden and the EU’s policy decisions on global energy production or prices was minimal.

However, there was another contributing factor that has seemingly been ignored or forgotten in the current discourse. Why did other major energy players, most notably Saudi Arabia, not even attempt to make up for the overall energy shortages as demand rose in 2022? Was it simply uncertainty about a market at the whim of new COVID variants or was it an attempt to make up for the losses of the past two years?

Not entirely. Actually, it was partially due to the “master dealmaking” of the first Trump administration

As noted earlier, in 2020, oil prices plummeted. In fact, it was such a dramatic crash that WTI went negative for the first time in history being recorded at -$36.98 on April 20, 2020.9 Negative commodity pricing occurs when the cost of transport and storage exceed potential returns requiring producers to incentivize offloading their product to a market with little to no demand.10

Of course, much of this collapse in demand was due to the 2020 pandemic and the associated global lockdowns. However, the initial drop in prices also triggered a feud between two major energy suppliers feeling the economic stress of the loss of their major export commodity. In early March, Russia undermined OPEC’s proposed production cut leading to a retaliation by Saudi Arabia and ultimately leading to an oil price war between the two energy exporters.11

By dropping fuel prices to such artificial lows at a time with such little demand, oil producing firms faced a nearly existential financial risk. This precipitated a nearly universal demand for a swift resolution to the Russia-Saudi oil conflict.

Enter Donald Trump at the end of his first administration and facing an election amidst a once-in-a-century global pandemic that was already jeopardizing the global economy. Seeking to avert a collapse of America’s energy sector, Trump brokered an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia slashing crude oil production dramatically and setting a schedule that would slowly allow its return to normal over an extended period.

That timeframe… 2 years.

The cuts decreased productivity initially by 9.7 million barrels per day, about 10% of global supply compared to the year prior. This cut was fine during the height of COVID which saw a nearly 35% reduction in demand.12 However, by April of 2022 (two months after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), the end of Trump’s negotiated deal still had production cut by approximately 6 million barrels per day, despite a resurgence of demand and the sanctioning of Russian oil exports.13

Thus, amidst a reopening global economy and the conflict in Ukraine, Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC was bound by Trump’s agreement and prohibited from increasing production to make up for the global supply insufficiencies. Despite slightly increasing production levels in the summer of 2022, which incidentally followed shortfalls in supply quotas due to structural issues caused by the pandemic,14 OPEC+ (which now included Russia) reached an agreement in October 2022 to continue production limitations.15

Presidents do not control oil prices but they can shape events that impact them even years after their time in office. Trump’s 2020 deal set up the 2022 spike by artificially capping production based on his inaccurate prediction of where global energy demand would be two years after the start of the pandemic. We can only imagine how devastating things would have been if Trump had been right in underselling the pandemic and demand had risen a year or more before the end of his brokered arrangement. This deal would also set up the framework for the next OPEC+ agreement that continued the limited production at a time of resurgent demand.

At the start of 1979, the already month-long oil strikes of the Iranian Revolution led to a loss of 4.8 million barrels of oil per day, a deficit of approximately 7% of global production.16 In February of that year, the first ever Secretary of Energy, James R. Schlesinger, authored a memorandum to President Jimmy Carter detailing a plan to manage even a long-term loss of essentially all of Iran’s oil production – largely based on an increase in Saudi extraction which had already grown by nearly 3.5 million barrels per day. However, the Secretary concluded his memo with a warning regarding the risk of a public panic artificially impacting the market and causing a pricing crisis.17

Despite the increased production by Saudi Arabia and the other measures taken by Schlesinger and the Carter administration, prices would still more than double from around $13 to $34 a barrel and would remain high until the mid-1980s.18 There was not much the Carter administration could do to overcome the “Crisis of Confidence.”19 The simple perception of a second oil crisis in a decade ended the Carter administration with the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan.

It has long been a fixture of U.S. presidential politics to use gas prices as a yardstick for measuring an administration’s success. When prices spike the traditional answer is to deflect blame while claiming that president’s do not set fuel prices.

However, policy decisions matter. The contrast between 2022 and 2026 offers a clear example of these two dynamics. In Trump’s case, his policy decisions are a direct cause. If you want to increase the cost of oil, starting wars in the Middle East is an easy way to do it. The Bush administration’s 2003 invasion of Iraq would not only double (or more) historic averages, but make that increase from $20-$40 a barrel to $60-$100 a normal fact of life.20

Whatever rationalizations one may have for Trump’s actions in Iran (especially given the lack of any serious gains from the conflict), the war was a choice. A choice that did not have to be made and with easily foreseeable consequences for which Trump failed to account. The blame for the current surge in prices, an increase that will likely last through at least year-end, falls squarely on Trump’s shoulders.

Conversely, the Biden administration was stuck facing global events they did not create but had to manage. All the while, they were limited by a decision made by the first Trump administration to suppress global production that continued through the reopening of the global economy.

Trump, like Biden, may not be to blame for all of the events of 2022, but it turns out that Trump did play a significant role in that oil crisis as well, a stunning lack of foresight for the supposed “Dealmaker-in-Chief.”

As Americans, we celebrate our national birthday on the 4^th of July, recognizing the country’s founding as the adoption of our Declaration of Independence from British colonial rule. However, as millions of schoolchildren entering American History classes this fall will undoubtedly learn, it was on July 2^nd that the Lee Resolution was adopted formalizing American independency. The adoption of the Declaration on July 4^th was simply the approval for the notifying document meant to be sent to King George III. How American it is that we would lie about our age to make ourselves younger!

Along with this historical factoid, these children will learn that John Adams once wrote in a letter to his wife, Abigail, that July 2^nd would be considered the “most memorable” day in our history.1 So, why do we Americans celebrate the 4^th instead of the 2^nd? The reason, for better and worse, is something essential to America – publication. The mass production and distribution of a given text intertwine two of the country’s seemingly foundational, though often problematic, characteristics – capitalism and nationalism.

Following the adoption of the Declaration, the document would be disseminated to the former colonies, now states, the Continental Army, and eventually to emissaries, dignitaries, and heads of state throughout Europe. This document would be an artifact, a more tangible item or marker of record than the actual closeted vote conducted by the Second Continental Congress. Atop the Declaration, and the latter facsimiles that would be produced, was the date: July 4, 1776.

The Declaration is an object that can be commercialized. To mark American independence, newspapers can publish the text or images of the Declaration, town criers or families can read it, copies can be produced and sold – or stolen by Nicolas Cage.

Like American flag hats and streamers, bikinis and underwear, the Declaration can be a commodified symbolic representation of American independence but only if we overlook the inconvenience of having to explain the discrepancy in the date. Much easier to just forget the 2^nd and adopt the 4^th.

But while it may seem belittling to describe the commodification of the document meant to define our understanding of rights, privileges, and the limitations and obligations of government as the source of our July 4^th celebration, there is something beautiful to it as well. The publication of the document is the process by which it is shared amongst the population, it is what makes it our definition of rights and privileges.

In the landmark text, Imagined Communities, Benedict Anderson describes the role of print-capitalism in the creation and spread of nationalism.2 He especially identifies the role of newspapers and print-journalism in the development of American national consciousness.3

Publication creates a shared experience of local, national, and global events by its readers. Reading the same headlines, a person can travel far and wide while engaging in the same discussions across the country with every person they meet creating a sense of commonality. The scale of the press spreads that sense of community such that, with a national press, you can create a national community.

Compared to a pre-Enlightenment context, this national unity could be seen positively. Feudal states were divided with fragmented identities. In the American context, the clash between state and national identity was a major issue for half of our history.

However, with this enlargement of identity, came an enlargement of economic and military interests and power. Additionally, national identity does not simply unite but promotes a sense of superiority justifying enacting atrocities on lesser “others.” Power competition between states becomes grander and when diplomacy fails the wars become larger. Colonialism and the two World Wars were also the products and legacy of nationalism.

In our current context, nationalism is less a unifying force than it is a tool of populist division from supposedly nefarious global forces and technocratic elites. This is not just an American problem. Around the world, populist leaders are abandoning international alliances and frameworks sowing hatred, division, and fear.

This animosity is not simply externalized. As always, there is an internalization of that threat, a fear of a force acting within to betray our national interests in favor of an external foe. Whether it be immigrant populations, individual figures like George Soros, the entire Democratic Party, or, as Trump described in his speech at Mount Rushmore,4 communist infiltrators, the narrative of an enemy from within fractures the domestic population. In this way, nationalism always begets division.

American nationalism enabled its rapid growth and expansion allowing for it to claim the width of the North American continent within a century, while also adopting a massively diverse population from around the world. However, that same national identity was subverted by internalized “imagined communities” that divided and fractured the country. As Benedict Anderson notes:

Even in the USA, the affective bonds of nationalism were elastic enough, combined with the rapid expansion of the western frontier and the contradictions generated between the economies of North and South, to precipitate a war of secession almost a century after the Declaration of Independence…[sic]5

However, there is another way to analyze the 4^th of July besides the gloomy ramifications of the commodifying nationalism of print-capitalism.

July 2^nd may have been the official legal enactment of independence by the Second Continental Congress, but the publication of the Declaration of Independence was how the news was spread. We can, on the one hand, read this in the Andersonian sense of print-capitalism producing a national imagined community. However, we can also read the adoption of July 4^th as a democratic, egalitarian, and cosmopolitan symbol. One in which the birth of America was not when the political representatives legally formed the new country, but when the masses adopted it.

The 4^th is an inversion of traditional political power dynamics, in other words, democracy. Rather than power isolated in the hands of a cadre of political elites, democracy enables the governmental expression of the collective will. As the great defender of pluralism and democracy, John Dewey, stated:

In conception, at least, democracy approaches most nearly the ideal of all social organization; that in which the individual and society are organic to each other. For this reason democracy, so far as it is really democracy, is the most stable, not the most insecure, of governments. In every other form of government there are individuals who are not organs of the common will, who are outside of the political society in which they live, and are, in effect, aliens to that which should be their own commonwealth. Not participating in the formation or expression of the common will, they do not embody it in themselves. Having no share in society, society has none in them.6

We can see July 4^th through a different lens, an inclusive and cosmopolitan one that embraces the other with openness and an ethic of hospitality in which power is diffused throughout the population.

Democracy is the response, the challenge, to nationalist populism which seeks to divide, and inevitably destroy, the nation it professes to love. The nationalist will always construct a new threat, find a new foe to hate and fear, and the nation will inevitably shrink away into nothingness and despair. Democracy, however, can unite populations.

It should come as no surprise then that right-wing populists have begun to challenge the idea of America as a “democracy” (as if being a republic was somehow a mutually exclusive proposition). This is not just a manifestation of ignorance; it is an insidious proposition that seeks to dismantle what made American independence truly revolutionary. It undermines the egalitarian values professed in the Declaration, using the document instead as a prop.

In March 2025, Trump had a copy of the Declaration of Independence hung up in the Oval Office. His Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, spoke of the document as if it were the original, saying it would be, “carefully protected and preserved.”7 Meanwhile, the actual Declaration is kept in darkness to protect it after having nearly faded away in its entirety. What could be a more apt metaphor?

Trump uses the Declaration of Independence as a branding tool to sell the legitimacy of an administration which undermines the essence and spirit of the document itself, reducing it to a mere product.

For 250 years, the promise of the Declaration has been unrealized. But in recognizing the 4^th of July, perhaps we can see some hope of its democratic promise.